How Effective Are Top Campaign Ads for Harris, Trump?

If you’ve tuned in to cheer on your favorite football team in the past couple of weeks, you’ve probably seen it: In one of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s most widely aired campaign ads, a narrator rips into Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ support of gender-affirming care for prisoners.

“Kamala’s agenda is they/them, not you,” the TV spot concludes.

Amid other messaging about inflation, immigration and housing, Trump for President is spending its biggest total—some $30 million—on this and other ads on the same topic, according to AdImpact, seeking to convince audiences for NFL and college games that Harris is hopelessly radical. The vice president, too, is investing big in what’s slated to be an unprecedented election for political advertising. Her campaign outspent the former president’s 2-to-1 ($456.3 million vs. $204.3 million) from July 22 to Oct. 9, with ads on taxation, housing, health care and abortion—now being augmented with a strong push to convince voters the former president is himself a mentally unstable extremist.

The sizable media buys stretch beyond TV: Harris’ campaign paid around $4.5 million for promotion on Meta platforms earlier this month and is dominating spending across radio and digital channels—with the exception of X, where Trump is the biggest political ad buyer. Both candidates are ramping up advertising in swing states in the leadup to Nov. 5.

Is that record-breaking expenditure worth it? Maryland Today spoke to three University of Maryland experts—marketing Clinical Professor Hank Boyd, communication Professor and Chair Shawn Parry-Giles, and government and politics Lecturer Candace Turitto—to break down the strategy and effectiveness of some of the top 30-second spots for each candidate:

Trump: “Insane”
The ad attacks Harris’ support of gender-affirming surgery for a convicted murderer. Amid clips of Harris discussing her position, before-and-after photos of the inmate flash across the screen, as well as snippets from news articles: “Killer gets sex-reassignment surgery on taxpayers’ dime.” The narrator intones, “It sounds insane because it is insane.”

Boyd: This ad boldly confronts widely held resistance among some voters who lean conservative about having to embrace “the otherness” in our society. For parts of middle America, especially the flyover states, there will be certain angst that will be expressed in the words, “I just don’t get this LGBTQ agenda.”

The political operatives use the wording of “they/them” deliberately in the ad and hammer home the point “not you.” In conservative circles, this will resonate because it taps a key social issue surrounding the Harris/Walz campaign: The ticket comes across as unapologetically liberal and progressive. For moderate Republicans and independents, they may presume that Kamala will be too radical. Hence, this is the perfect peg to hang one’s hat on for the undecided voter.

Turitto: A culture war message, if it’s good, is designed to redraw partisan lines and make people think outside of just their bucket about what they expect from Republicans and Democrats. There are a lot of Republicans who are non-Trumpers who are skeptical (of Harris) still, and this is a big reason why.

The design of this ad is very simplistic, but I think that’s good. One of my favorite images is in second five or six, where they take the image of the prisoner before transition and then just switch it with after transition, and then Kamala’s on the other side. It’s not telling you anything, it’s showing you. And then I think that “they/them” tagline is, for the Republicans and for the Trump campaign, about as chef’s-kiss as you can get.

Parry-Giles: It picks up on these debates at school boards across the country, especially in the South, with book banning and parent groups trying to control the agenda, whether or not LGBTQ literature should be read, whether or not teachers should use preferred pronouns for students who identify as transgender. It furthers this kind of “woke” argument that the Republicans like to use.

But it’s decontextualized out of another conversation she was having about medical care and prisons. When you go back to the original, she supports it when people are experiencing significant mental health issues because they are not able to transition.

Harris: “A New Way Forward”
Opening with a clip from September’s presidential debate, Harris touts her compassion along with her law enforcement background in this bio ad. She also hits a bipartisan note: “As a prosecutor, I never asked a victim or a witness, ‘Are you a Republican or a Democrat?’ The only thing I ever asked them: ‘Are you okay?’”

Boyd: Since the Democratic Convention, the air has been infused with joy. This political staple is definitely in keeping with this inclusive motif the Democrats have decided to champion. It strives to capture the better angels of our American society, where leaders care about the welfare of ordinary citizens. This spot underscores why inclusivity matters. The focal point is about the informed citizen who is ready to cast his or her vote for a new generation of leadership.

Parry-Giles: A lot of times when they’re trying to build trust, they’re looking straight into the camera as if they’re talking to the American people. I think she’s distancing herself from Biden, as if she’s the challenger and Trump’s the incumbent, because being the challenger has advantages.

She’s drawn on the Obama “hope” message and the joy, and people say they want it. It doesn’t discount the fact that negative (ads) work, but I think people are looking at times to move beyond that divisiveness.

Turitto: I think this is a good kind of boilerplate positive ad. The first seven to 10 seconds of this ad? Beautiful. Love it. I remember hearing that phrase during the debate and being like, “Oh, that’s good.” Second half of the ad? Not a fan. It’s like an invitation. It’s like a buffet. Find yourself among these groups of voters—bam, bam, bam—construction workers, teachers, people in suits, people not in suits. It’s hard to see myself in one of those groups of images, because some of them, I’m not even sure who that group is.

Trump: “Prices”
As comedic music plays in the background, this ad presents “the debate we’ve all been waiting for.” Two screens play competing clips of Harris, one where she laments how the prices of bread and ground beef have increased 50%, and the other where she declares, “Bidenomics is working.”

Boyd: The public has anchored on the fact that (Trump is) a businessman. It stands to reason he understands the levers of what drives a good economy. The irony is that if you look at the key metrics and indicators, America is thriving in many respects.  

Trump wants the public to believe that the economy is in chaos. The ad emphasizes the perception that, “No, this policy of Bidenomics isn’t working for the regular Americans.” So if I’m well ensconced in the middle class, I look at food prices, I look at rising rents, gas about $3.25 a gallon and exorbitant prices for my kids’ back-to-school clothing … I can’t help but worry about the economy.

Turitto: None of those indicators matter if the voters do not feel confident about the economy. The economy is 700 different pieces of information—inflation, gas prices, whatever—and all I need is to tap into a couple of those that are true and felt by voters, and then all of a sudden, I’m speaking their language. And frankly, I’m always baffled why anybody would coin a term like “Bidenomics.” You’re inviting responsibility for everything that happens with that.

Both of these Trump ads are using (Harris’) own words, and a lot of them. So she’s building the script. And I think that is also very powerful.

Parry-Giles: Campaigns are usually run on their candidate’s character. They’re putting her side by side, decontextualizing her words again, as if she’s speaking to herself. The marker, oftentimes, is authenticity. I think they’re trying to just show a duplicitous side: “She says this, but then she says this. Who is the real Kamala Harris?” I think this plays along with that music (to suggest) that Kamala Harris is dumb and inauthentic.

Harris: “Who He Is”
Following a video of Trump claiming he’s proud to have ended Roe v. Wade, imagery of the ultra-conservative Project 2025 appears on screen, suggesting he plans to restrict birth control, ban abortion nationwide and monitor women’s pregnancies. “We know who Donald Trump is,” the narrator concludes. “He’ll take control. We’ll pay the price.”

Parry-Giles: There’s this concept that candidates are a mystery. Hillary Clinton, her whole career, it was, “Who is the real Hillary Clinton?” This isn't, “Who is Donald Trump?” It’s, “This is who he is.” It’s saying, “He showed us. We don’t have to guess. There is no mystery.” Then it goes through his own words as well as what’s happened in the country since Dobbs. I found it pretty powerful. She’s not in it, it’s not her voice, but it’s very direct and hits at the target voters she wants to really activate.

Boyd: This is the central issue of this presidential campaign: abortion rights. It is the rallying call for women. Due to Donald Trump’s Supreme Court appointees, you have lost a fundamental right that’s been taken away by the Dobbs decision. There’s absolute transparency in his agenda to control a woman’s body. By now, we now know who Donald Trump is, and if you want to ensure the rights of the women in your life, then you need to vote for the progressive ticket of Harris/Walz.

Turitto: I think that is a very strong approach in almost any ad, just to let the person tell you who they are. What I don’t like about this is the targeting. I think that who they want this to be directed toward is that clump of middle voters who possibly lean Republican, but who are pro-choice and do not like the Roe v. Wade decision. I notice that the Project 2025 thing, they don't mention it, it’s an image of it. I think they’re taking a gamble that more people in that middle space know about Project 2025 and the negative connotations of it.

But there’s also a little ditty that I learned in campaigns: You have to have an army before you go to war. So maybe I’m wrong about who it is meant to target, and the strategy behind this is to collect the army and motivate people who are already going to vote for Kamala Harris, and to get them fired up so they go knock on some freaking doors or try to raise some money.