Delayed Delivery

Companies from UPS to Amazon to Google parent Alphabet are poised to introduce commercial deliveries via drone, prompting predictions of a consumer’s paradise. Just imagine: One tap on your smartphone and a small, buzzing angel—make that a robot aircraft—will alight on your front walk bearing that kitchen tool, health supplement or roll of bathroom tissue you need right now.

What’s keeping these fantasies grounded is a variety of questions of safety and regulations.

Earlier this month, Alphabet subsidiary Wing introduced the first commercial drone delivery service in Christiansburg, Va.—with severe limitations. Wing only carries packages the last short stretch to customers’ houses, and operators must keep the drones in sight at all times to comply with the Federal Aviation Administration’s rules for unmanned aircraft.

The UMD Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Test Site in St. Mary’s County carries out a range of research on practical uses for drones as well as operational regulatory issues. Its director, Matt Scassero, a retired Navy aviator, explains the obstacles allowing deliveries on a widespread basis, and how to the government and industry can overcome them.

Things can go very wrong.
Although drones are often seen as benign—little more than toys—they can do serious damage to people or property. “Really the worst thing that could happen is that people who are uninvolved with the UAS operation get hurt or killed if it comes down on someone, or if it flies beyond the line of sight or if you lose the data link,” Scassero said. In an extreme worst-case scenario, a drone that has either gone out of control or is operated by an irresponsible pilot could stray into the path of an aircraft with people on board and potentially bring it down.

The effects of a major accident would be widespread.
There have been close calls, but no disasters—but should one occur, not only would the victims suffer, the industry could be irrevocably damaged and society as a whole could miss out on the benefits of drones. “As soon as anything like that happens, especially if it's a serious thing like a fatality or a number of fatalities, that's going to drive legislators and others to really react badly and put some difficult limits on the industry even before it gets off the ground,” Scassero said.

Commercial delivery can’t move forward until the Federal Aviation Administration acts.
While many federal guidelines and policies are needed before full-scale drone deliveries can start, two in particular are a must, Scassero said: Commercial and other operators need a way to obtain permission to fly drones beyond an operator’s line of vision. Currently, they have to keep eyeballs on drones, limiting flight distances and dramatically expanding the number of personnel needed for a flight. Secondly, flights over populated areas are forbidden without special permission, something that would also need to change, he said.

Better drones are also needed.
Generally, civilian drones are built more like hobby gadgets than serious tools, lacking backup provisions in systems such as propulsion, navigation and communications, Scassero said. Commercial drone operators (and those of us walking around under the aircraft) can’t afford for them to go haywire, so redundancies of the type that exists in manned aircraft are a must. Because the FAA hasn’t released requirements for such systems, manufacturers have mostly held off on building them, rendering the civilian drone fleet unfit for commercial operations, he said. “It’s a classic chicken-or-the-egg kind of thing,” he said.

You’ll get your first airborne delivery in the next five years.
The next newly announced iPhone release won’t arrive at your door via drone … but the one after that might. Based on his research and interactions with regulators, Scassero thinks that within the next two years, regulations to enable flights beyond visual line of sight will be put in place, and possibly regulations that allow flights over people. “There'll be probably a size limitation for the aircraft, and maybe a range limitation. They'll definitely have some standards introduced, technical standards introduced that they'll have to meet.” Regular commercial operations will likely begin within two to five years, he said.