- October 28, 2026
- By Kimbra Cutlip
A University of Maryland researcher was awarded $1.5M from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Office of the Chief Economist to study how the growing power of big grocery chains affects the farmers, ranchers and fishers who supply them, and what that means for food prices.
Plenty of economic research focuses on competition and pricing among retail chains, with studies asking questions like whether prices are higher for consumers with only two competing supermarkets instead of four, said James MacDonald, a research professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
“But there’s much less research on competition along the supply chain, from supermarkets back to processors and farmers, so we're hoping to generate new knowledge to answer questions in that area,” he said.
For example, Walmart (the country’s largest grocery seller) accounts for 23% of grocery sales, but it’s not known if that gives the company leverage to force down prices paid to farmers and suppliers, who can also sell to food service and to export markets, MacDonald said. This project aims to answer that question and others.
MacDonald will assemble a research team to delve into specific market sectors such as seafood, beef, fresh produce and cereals. Working under sub-grants, the researchers will focus on understanding subjects like grocery chain buying strategies, what share of shelf prices reach producers, and how changes in farm prices impact consumers.
The project will culminate in a series of reports that will provide policymakers with solid evidence for making decisions on antitrust and competition policy. MacDonald said his goal is to help keep farmers profitable, grocery prices affordable and the food supply safe.