UMD Researchers Find Homeownership Increasingly Out of Reach for Marylanders

Sluggish new housing construction in Maryland is driving up prices and contributing to residents' inability to achieve the American dream of homeownership, according to a new University of Maryland study.

Conducted by researchers at UMD’s National Center for Smart Growth (NCSG) for the Maryland Department of Housing and Community Development, the report released on Thursday indicates that the state needs to build nearly 600,000 new homes by 2045 to keep pace with the projected rate of household growth.

It found that the construction rate hasn’t risen since the COVID-19 pandemic and has been further slowed by restrictive zoning laws. Most at risk, the report says, are low-income residents and a growing population of older people.

"Without further state and local policy action to support preservation of existing affordable housing and boost production of new affordable and market-rate housing, families across Maryland will continue to be burdened by rising housing costs,” said Nicholas Finio, NCSG associate director and one of the study’s authors.

For this update and expansion of NCSG’s 2020 report, the researchers analyzed newer federal, state and local census data to illustrate the state’s affordable housing shortage and the barriers preventing residents from buying a home. According to Maryland’s 2023 economy report, housing costs are the primary driver in pushing Marylanders out of state and deterring new residents.

Since the pandemic, according to the new report, chronic underproduction of new housing has widened the gap between supply and demand, resulting in high housing cost burdens. In Montgomery County, the median home price now exceeds $475,000, up 20% in four years. Statewide, only 49% of moderate-income households were able to afford a home in 2022, compared to 75% of households in 2000.

The shortage of new housing stock is exacerbated by the state’s restrictive zoning laws, which hamper the construction of multi-family housing and high-density development. The resulting rising housing costs disproportionately affect residents of color and older residents. People ages 65 and up are projected to make up 21% of the state’s population by 2045 yet are increasingly unable to remain in their communities because of a lack of housing options that support them as they age.

In addition, more Marylanders cannot afford to pay their rent because of a shortage of nearly 300,000 affordable housing units and skyrocketing rental costs. More than half of renters spend at least a third of their income on housing.

“Marylanders want more affordable housing, lower rent and, ultimately, a chance at homeownership. They want government to play a greater role in delivering on these basic expectations,” said Maryland Department of Housing and Community Development Secretary Jacob Day ’04. “To find solutions that work, we need to assess the problems honestly and realistically.”

This past spring, Gov. Wes Moore introduced the Housing for Jobs Act of 2025, which aims to expedite the approval process for new development and limits the reasons county governments facing housing shortages can deny applications. The state’s most populous county, Montgomery, recently passed legislation that will allow duplexes, townhomes and small apartment buildings in areas previously earmarked as single-family lots along major roads.

Ending Maryland’s housing crisis, the report says, will require more progress from local and state governments on zoning to allow for denser housing, along with new efforts to protect affordable housing already in place, especially for low-income, older and disabled residents, and to expand supportive options for residents experiencing homelessness.

“The assessment exposes the many complex challenges facing Maryland’s affordable housing supply,” said NCSG Director Kate Howell, who also authored the study. “While the challenges may look different across different regions, age groups and communities, the report underscores the need for creative policy solutions and partnerships.”