Post-UMD Poll: Support Shifts From Hogan to Alsobrooks in Key U.S. Senate Race

Democrat Angela Alsobrooks holds a double-digit lead over Republican opponent Larry Hogan in Maryland’s U.S. Senate race, a new Washington Post survey in partnership with the University of Maryland’s Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement (CDCE) finds.

The Prince George’s County executive leads the former two-term governor 51%-40% among 1,012 likely voters randomly sampled Sept. 19-23 from a statewide voter database. It was a stark reversal from a previous poll in March, which found that voters in deeply blue Maryland preferred Hogan to Alsobrooks, 50% to 36% among registered voters, in a contest that could decide which party controls the Senate and has major implications for the balance of power throughout the federal government.

“The task for Alsobrooks is pretty challenging because a lot of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Hogan, and changing that is not necessarily easy,” CDCE Director and government and politics Professor Michael Hanmer told The Washington Post. “I think she’s made a lot of headway.”

The poll also found that 47% of voters are “not sure of how (Hogan) will handle” the issue of abortion, should he be elected to the Senate. Though the Republican candidate has said that he is pro-choice, only 20% think that he would support abortion rights. A greater share, 29%, think he would restrict them.

“With the Dobbs decision, the game just completely changed. And you have to be specific now,” in light of the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization to strike down Roe v. Wade, Hanmer told The Post.

The poll found that over four in 10 Maryland voters (43%) say abortion is an “extremely important” factor in their decision on whom to vote for; more voters (53%) say Alsobrooks would do a better job handling abortion than those who say Hogan would (24%).

Forty-two percent of Maryland voters say Hogan would do a better job with the economy compared to the 38% who think Alsobrooks would.

In addition, six in 10 Maryland voters approve of the way Gov. Wes Moore is handling his job, and over three-quarters (77%) positively rate his response to the collapse of the Key Bridge in Baltimore in March.

“During a crisis the public pays very close attention,” Hanmer said. “Because this situation was so serious and complex, it is very likely that this contributed to their overall approval of his performance in office.”

He suggested, too, that following the bridge catastrophe, the governor’s visibility has increased in the state and on a national scale; Moore was among the speakers at the Democratic National Convention last month.

But voters have doubts about how the governor explained the claim on a 2006 White House Fellowship application that he received a Bronze Star for his service in Afghanistan as a U.S. Army officer. While one-fifth of the participants in the poll declined to answer this question, 46% said that they thought the governor “tried to take credit for an accomplishment that he didn’t earn.” Thirty-four percent said they believe he “made an honest mistake.”