Latino Vote ‘Up for Grabs,’ Says UMD Political Scientist

During the 1960 presidential campaign, Jacqueline Kennedy appeared in a television spot with an unprecedented pitch. Seeking to earn Latino support for her husband, John F. Kennedy, she spoke entirely in Spanish. Kennedy went on to win 85% of the Mexican American vote.

Sixteen years later, incumbent candidate Gerald Ford was handed a plate of tamales at a San Antonio campaign stop. Before taking a bite of one, he failed to remove the husk, signaling his cultural ignorance. Coined the “Great Tamales Incident,” the faux pas cost Ford the state of Texas, some said.

Old clips of those two seminal moments captured the attention of then-graduate student Alejandro “Alex” Flores. Now an assistant professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland, Flores has tracked Latino outreach efforts over the years, culminating in the 2024 presidential battle in which both candidates are wooing Spanish speakers in unparalleled ways.

As the Latinos population in the U.S. increases, political ad spending to court them has skyrocketed. In the battleground of Nevada, ad spending has surged 724% in Spanish-speaking outlets compared to 2020, according to Bloomberg.

“Both candidates see Latino voters as up for grabs rather than predetermined,” Flores said.

Until recently, forging such inroads wasn’t as high a priority. During the aughts, amid legislative efforts to make English the official language of the United States, candidates converted existing ads into Spanish by “running them through Google Translate, using a generic voiceover and calling it a day,” Flores said.

In 2015, then-candidate Donald Trump derided fellow candidate Jeb Bush for speaking Spanish to reporters in Miami. Later in the campaign, Trump tried to curry favor with Latinos by posting a Cinco de Mayo photo of a taco salad, which didn’t help his cause, Flores said.

But the candidate evolved. During the 2020 campaign, Trump produced a Spanish ad that was cut into three versions, using Mexican, Cuban and Puerto Rican dialects and slang—"some of the most sophisticated Spanish political messaging ever seen,” Flores said. Elsewhere, Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden traded barbs in ads that ran exclusively on Spanish outlets, underscoring what Flores called “the first truly bilingual campaign.”

Also that year, eight Democratic candidates spoke in Spanish on a primary debate stage, something that would have been unfathomable a decade before, Flores said.

But such direct appeals can also risk alienation. Flores conducted an experiment in 2018 by presenting participants with nearly identical ads featuring Jeb Bush, one in English, the other in Spanish. After watching the Spanish version, bilingual participants were more likely to agree with Bush’s immigration policies—even though the ad never mentioned immigration. But for English-only speakers, the findings were reversed, even among Democrats.

During the current presidential contest, each candidate has a distinct Latino outreach strategy. Vice President Kamala Harris is leaning into the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, an appeal to voters with roots in countries like El Salvador, Venezuela and Chile with histories of coups and contested elections, Flores said.

Meanwhile, he added, Trump routinely calls Harris a “San Francisco socialist,” with allusions to communism regimes in Cuba and socialist nations in the Americas.

Trump’s efforts took a hit this week after a comedian speaking at his rally in New York City called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” That remark could cost him votes in Pennsylvania; it has the largest number of Puerto Ricans—a half-million—among battleground states and more than five times Biden’s 2020 margin of victory there, Flores said.

With five days until the Nov. 5 election, Flores discussed notable ways each candidate has courted Latinos, grading each effort.

HARRIS

“Mi Voz/My Voice”: Pennsylvania TV/digital ad featuring local radio personality as narrator
“In past election-cycle ads, candidates themselves haven’t spoken Spanish but instead relied on Spanish-speaking narrators. That changed in 2020, when Democratic nominee Julian Castro, who isn’t fluent, showed that speaking Spanish can still be done with effectiveness. Four years later, I’d expect a Democratic candidate to knock it out of the park. So I was disappointed Harris didn’t attempt to speak Spanish here. But the effort is better than nothing.”

Grade: B+

“Por Prosperidad”: Radio spot featuring corrido music indigenous to Mexico
“This ad features a specific reference for Mexican Americans. Corridos are Mexican folk ballads with lots of imagery that only make sense to people with strong cultural attachments. Harris’ decision here shows her cultural bona fides, making you feel good about your identity and connecting it with your vote. What’s more, the overwhelming majority of the Latino electorate is of Mexican origin, so she’s rewarded. Still, the hope is that only the targeted audience hears the ad, because going beyond it poses a risk of alienating non-Spanish speakers.”

Grade: A

TRUMP

“Que Mala Kamala”: TV/digital ad featuring video montage of Trump dancing, with salsa music playing in background throughout
“On one hand, this ad is insulting and mocks stereotypes. In addition, most Latino voters are Mexican American, but salsa is more prototypical of other Central and South American cultures, so he misses the mark there. I’d give him low grades on execution, but evidence shows that even one-dimensional Spanish ads are persuasive compared to doing nothing. And there’s probably a net gain because it softens him when you consider his immigration rhetoric.”

Grade: B

Oct. 16 Univision town hall appearance
“His willingness to make inroads on a Spanish-speaking television station speaks volumes. He’s making the gamble that certain Latinx segments, especially men, hold the same restrictionist border views that he does. He talked about letting the ‘wrong’ types of immigrants in while telling others, ‘You’re the good type of immigrants.’ He didn’t really land the talking points, calling Jan. 6 ‘a day of love.’ But the appearance itself earns high marks, especially since he’s declined other media opportunities.”

Grade: A-