Americans Across Political Spectrum Are United in Cynicism, Study Finds

Many pundits have described the 2024 presidential election as a partisan Republican victory during polarized times. But a new report coproduced by a University of Maryland journalism professor questions the classic “left versus right” narrative, finding that most Americans are fiercely united in key attitudes that propelled President-elect Donald Trump to victory over Vice President Kamala Harris: distrust in institutions and pessimism over the country’s future.

The report, cowritten by Louisiana State University’s Manship School of Communication and NORC at the University of Chicago, found that Republicans and Democrats have similar fears about American democracy. Only a quarter of Americans believe the country’s best days are ahead, while just one in five believe the government can be trusted to do the right thing. One in 10 thinks the government represents them well, and a quarter says the country needs a total upheaval to get back on track.

“In dark hues, we actually have more in common we might think, which is distressing, because what we share are doubts,” said Tom Rosenstiel, the Eleanor Merrill Scholar on the Future of Journalism and professor of the practice at UMD’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism and a senior fellow at NORC. “In terms of a lack of confidence in the future, it’s close to three-quarters of people.”

The research team last summer surveyed a nationally representative sample of 3,031 Americans to capture their feelings about their country, civic engagement and media engagement. Yet in the months leading up to the election, pollsters, relying on traditional demographics like party, race and education, failed to grasp the nuanced, often bleak outlook of the American electorate, thwarting their ability to predict the November outcome, the authors of the report argued.

“Looking at voters’ deep-seated feelings of grave concern, the election should have been almost obvious,” said Rosenstiel.

Americans across party divides also expressed negative views of the news media: more than seven in 10 have little or no confidence in it. Few believe the media is even-handed, willing to admit mistakes or more interested in truth-telling than making a profit.

“We are looking to understand how news-reading behavior or news avoidance relates to Americans’ views and actions on individual civic participation, the strength of their democratic participation, values and polarization,” said Leonard Apcar, professional-in-residence and Wendell Gray Switzer Jr. Endowed Chair at the Manship School of Communication at LSU. “Was there a connection between those who do and do not engage in civic life and political polarization?”

The study identified five American cohorts based on trust in democratic institutions, community connections, faith in fellow Americans and attitudes toward the future. They don’t split neatly along party lines:

• The Ambivalent (29%): neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic about the country, less concerned about the current state of politics, slightly younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and more moderate politically than the general population.
• Classically Liberal (22%): pessimistic and cynical about the country’s future and the government, very supportive of the country’s diversity and its democratic system of government, slightly better educated, more affluent, and Democratic than the public overall.
• Mostly MAGA (21%): high rates of racial resentment and distrust of immigrants, negative outlook on national economy and the state of politics, older, more likely to be white, Christian and Republican than the population in general.
• The Disillusioned (15%): the most cynical and pessimistic, least engaged, more diverse, less educated, less affluent and younger than the general population.
• The Believers (13%): the most optimistic, highly engaged, very trusting of American leadership, politicians, institutions, and the media, lean Democratic, more racially and religiously diverse than the public in general.

Understanding each cohort helps explain why American voters feel misunderstood or unseen within the partisan framework that dominates the national narrative, the authors said.

Moving forward, political scientists, policymakers and journalists must look beyond party affiliations and other crude demographics to understand Americans’ troubled mood and spark a smarter discourse, Rosenstiel said. That might start with more augmenting of quantitative research with qualitative research.

“We need to talk to people more deeply and not just survey them,” he said. “The questions we’ve been using are not giving us accurate answers of what people are thinking about.”