5 Tips to Navigating Uncertainty

Imagine driving at night on a winding, unfamiliar road. A fork in the road appears, you don’t have GPS, and there's no sign indicating where either path leads. Meanwhile, a car behind is tailgating and flashing its lights, creating pressure to make a quick decision.

At times like this, said J. Gerald Suarez, professor of the practice in systems thinking and design at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, the famous Yogi Berra quote still holds true: “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”

He suggested that in times of ambiguity and uncertainty, we should keep moving because mobility keeps discoveries vibrant, opens new options and offers reprieve from the consequences of inaction.

Suarez, who served in two White House administrations as director of presidential quality, instilling systems thinking and organizational redesign, said that the greater the force felt from the environment, the greater the need for flexibility.

“We cannot pressure ourselves to seek a precise destination as we navigate ambiguity,” said Suarez. “Committing to a general sense of direction will become more important than finding a precise endpoint.”

Here are five more insights from Suarez to help navigate uncertain times, whether a post-graduation job search, a health crisis or economic instability:

Think like a pioneer, not a settler. Ambiguity presents opportunities for discovery and innovation. Embracing the incomplete or unknown provides room to reimagine it. “While pioneers move boldly into uncertainty, settlers seek stability, practicality and long-term security. We must dare to explore the unclear, rather than reinforce the known,” Suarez said.

Know it’s okay to not know. Instead of viewing ambiguity as a threat, see it as an opening—a gateway to growth and discovery. “Only when we admit we don’t have the answer can we create space to learn something new and create a unique or innovative answer,” said Suarez.

Reframe your perspective. Job insecurity or economic or geopolitical concerns require a reevaluation of available options. “Doing so will redirect your attention away from the insidious forces of unproductive worry and shift your thinking toward potential benefits,” Suarez said.

Recognize that indecision impedes progress. Suarez recalled an anecdote shared by a friend who was driving with their father down a country road when a rabbit suddenly darted into the car’s path, stopped in its tracks and was struck. Afterward, the father said, “If the rabbit had continued across the road the first time, it would have made it and been fine. If it had stopped and gone back to where it started, it would have been OK. But the rabbit’s failure to make a decision caused its own death.”

Take care of your future—before you have to. A crisis is the worst time to start planning. Fear and anxiety trigger our fight-or-flight instincts, narrowing our vision and making it harder to see beyond the present danger. Develop the skill of anticipation and contextualizing scenarios. Imagining plausible scenarios before they unfold will cultivate your interaction with the future.

“Just like pilots train with simulations, practice running scenario-based drills. That way, when the unexpected happens, you’ll see it not as a crisis, but as a moment of choice,” said Suarez. “If you imagine the future, you won’t be surprised by it.”