5 Key Congressional Races to Watch on Election Night

When Election Day dawns on Tuesday, more than just control of the White House will be balancing on a razor’s edge. The Senate, where Democrats hold a one-vote majority, could flip. The Republican-led House of Representatives, meanwhile, would switch control if Democrats net just five seats.

“The extraordinarily close race at the top of the ticket will permeate downballot,” said Kris Miler, a University of Maryland associate professor of government and politics and expert on congressional representation. “Combine that with the narrow majorities in both chambers, and congressional control is going to be a nailbiter.”

In the Senate, local eyes are on Maryland’s open seat, competitive for the first time in decades, where former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive, are facing off. Hogan, a moderate who’s worked to distance himself from former President Donald Trump, is casting himself as a unifier as he tries to narrow Alsobrooks’ double-digit lead in recent polls. She, meanwhile, argues that a Hogan win could guarantee a Republican-controlled Senate.

“In a year with a lot of attention to abortion rights and the large gender gap in the presidential polls, the Maryland Senate race is also notable because as a Black woman, Alsobrooks would join a currently all-male Maryland congressional delegation, and she would be a historic first for a senator from the state,” Miler said.

In the Senate, 23 Democratic incumbents are defending their seats compared to just 11 Republicans—a lucky break for the GOP, Miler said. In the House, she counts 26 tossup contests, many in districts won by then-candidate Joe Biden in 2020 that are currently represented by Republicans.

Miler spoke with Maryland Today about the dynamics of five tight contests to watch.

SENATE

Ohio: Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown vs. Republican Bernie Moreno
Ohio has become a red state, Miler said: Trump won by 8 points in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans run the governorship and state house. But Democratic issues have prevailed on recent ballot initiatives regarding reproductive rights and marijuana legalization. Brown, originally elected in 2006, has carved out a brand based on labor and blue-collar issues without emphasizing party. “He says, ‘I see you. I hear you. Keep me in office even if you vote for Trump,” she said.

Moreno, a wealthy businessman aligned with Trump, meanwhile is linking Brown to the Harris-Biden administration. “This race tests the idea that voters can split a ticket, and it challenges the notion that local politics have been nationalized,” Miler said. “It’s also the most expensive race in the country.”

Arizona (open seat): Republican Kari Lake vs. Democrat Ruben Gallego
“Lake, who’s associated with the Republican Party’s MAGA wing, is vocal about her anti-immigration views, which are played up in this border state,” Miler said. “Gallego, who represents a Phoenix-area U.S. House district, has a military and Ivy League background and is the son of a single, immigrant mother. He’s reached out to traditionally neglected voters, including Native American populations.”

Arizona favors Republicans 36% to 29%, and its Trump portion has increased since 2016, she said, but harbors a hefty bloc of independents and moderates. It also has a pronounced “maverick” bent, having given rise to former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party before vacating this seat, and former Sen. John McCain. “Despite Arizona’s Republican lean, this race feels up for grabs because of that maverick identity,” Miler said.

Wisconsin: Democrat incumbent Tammy Baldwin vs. Republican Eric Hovde
Wisconsin has traditionally been safe for Democrats—Baldwin won by 10 points in 2018—but it’s gotten more competitive. Baldwin, the first woman and openly gay person to represent the state, has been emphasizing her credentials on rural issues, which matter to a big part of Wisconsin, especially its dairy industry, Miler said. Hovde is a multimillionaire who ran in 2012, and Baldwin is bringing back things he said back then, like his support for overturning the Affordable Care Act andRoe v. Wade.

The race grew more personal in the final week, Miler said, with Baldwin pointing to Hovde’s out-of-state homes and businesses, painting him as out of touch. Hovde’s ads, meanwhile, focused on the wealth of Baldwin’s partner; some believe the ad is meant to emphasize that Baldwin is gay.

HOUSE

Michigan’s 7^th District (open seat): Democrat Curtis Hertel vs. Republican Tom Barrett
In this Lansing-area race between two experienced state senators, Hertel has called attention to Barrett's pro-life position in a contest where reproductive rights are front and center, while Barrett points to a $175 million business program Hertel backed that attracted a manufacturer with partial Chinese ownership to Grand Rapids. “The interesting twist is that the district contains Michigan State University, with 52,000 students, or 8% of the electorate,” Miler said. “Arecent study identified this contest as the No. 1 race where students could have an impact. They’d help Hertel, but we don’t know if they’ll vote here or in their home districts.”

New York’s 22^nd District: Incumbent Republican Brandon Williams vs. Democrat John Mannion
“The national Republican and Democratic parties maintain lists of key races, and this is at the top of both,” Miler said. The district, stretching from Syracuse to Utica, has a record of flip-flopping between parties; the last two races were decided by less than one percentage point. Williams, a one-term congressman, criticizes Mannion as being more liberal than his campaign image. Mannion, a state senator, criticizes Williams for contributing to irresponsible spending in Washington, and for opposing federal health care programs and abortion. Recent redistricting makes the electorate here significantly more Democratic, but the race is still extremely competitive.