--- title: 5 Key Congressional Races to Watch on Election Night date: 2026-10-29T05:30:00-04:00 author: University of Maryland canonical_url: "https://today.umd.edu/5-key-congressional-races-to-watch-on-election-night-2" section: Articles --- # 5 Key Congressional Races to Watch on Election Night *October 29, 2026* — by [John Tucker](/author/john-tucker) > Is a blue wave coming? A UMD political scientist says maybe not. *Wesley tingey r33v7 S Qtoz U unsplash 1920x1080 — Five races in four states — Texas, Kansas, Ohio and New York — could have an outsized impact on the balance of power in Congress. (Images via Unsplash)* Deep-red Kansas hasn't chosen a Democratic senator in nearly a century, but in the final days before the midterm elections, the party is spending on this year's race like that could change. The Sunflower State is one of an uncommonly high number of tossup states threatening Republicans' three-seat hold on the chamber in an election year when rising grocery and gas prices and mortgage rates are dominating the debate about the country's direction. As President Donald Trump tries to shore up support in battleground states despite his lowest-ever approval ratings, Democrats and many analysts are talking about a "blue wave." But is the hype real? Kris Miler, a University of Maryland professor of government and politics and expert on congressional representation, acknowledges Democratic tailwinds but cautions against counting Republicans out, especially in states with strong GOP bases. On election night, look to Georgia, where polls close at 7 p.m., as a sign of what’s to come, she said. Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff is expected to win readily, “but if it starts to get tight, you’ll know that things may not be great for Democrats across the country. They could be in for a wobbly night.” Here, Miler previews five other key congressional races to watch. The interview with Maryland Today was edited for length and clarity. ## SENATE **Texas (open seat): Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D)** “Democrats have been trying to flip Texas since 1988, but Trump won the state by 14 percentage points in 2024, so Republican expectations have been strong. This contest, however, is a statistical dead heat and suggestive of broader swings in the country. “The outside money coming in is remarkable. Elon Musk recently spent $158 million for Paxton, but Talarico has raised more. Nationally, the Democratic party is putting their best money toward their best candidates, and Talarico is at the top of their list. Paxton, meanwhile, has scandals, but he’s won statewide office three times despite them. “This race also shows the power of the presidential endorsement. Trump is extraordinarily unpopular but is Paxton’s biggest champion, and Paxton has leaned into that. In a tough primary, he defeated the high-ranking and powerful Sen. John Cornyn, a more moderate candidate who many say would beat Talarico handily. So Trump's endorsement could be a blessing or curse for Paxton.” **Kansas: Incumbent Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D)** “Everyone’s surprised Kansas is in play. Trump won by 10 or more points in the last three elections, and the state hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. But their governor is a two-term Democrat, showing that Democrats can get elected if they reflect Kansans with moderate, Midwestern sensibilities. “Hamilton, a Methodist pastor from outside of Kansas City, is new to politics, less politically aggressive and someone who portrays himself as independent, saying he wouldn’t back Senator (Chuck) Schumer as party leader. He’ll test whether Democrats can prove they’re still a big-tent party. The public role of religion in Kansas, like Texas, creates openings for candidates like Hamilton and Talarico, a seminary student. That would be a change from the 1990s, when non-African American Democrats ceded faith-based issues to Republicans. “Marshall has his flaws: He alienated voters by walking out of a town hall and received negative attention for aggressively collecting medical payments as an OB-GYN, among other things. But he’s still slightly ahead in the race, showing that partisanship still carries weight.” **Ohio: Incumbent Jon Husted (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)** “This is a special election after Husted inherited JD Vance’s seat (in 2025). Data centers, affordability and immigration are prominent issues; Ohio hosts many refugee populations, and there’s a possibility the Temporary Protected Status of Haitian immigrants will be revoked. “Husted has deep roots in Republican politics, but Brown also has name recognition as a three-term senator who lost his seat in 2024 with Trump on the ballot. Now that Trump is unpopular, he’s running again, testing how much the country has changed in two years. His reputation has been salt-of-the-earth, so it’s possible voters exhausted by the viciousness of politics look at Brown as the antithesis. “Ohio has a nasty political air right now. Rep. Max Miller is running a reelection campaign while facing allegations of domestic violence from his ex-wife, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno, who defeated Brown in 2024. And now you have this ad (released by the campaign of Republican candidate for Ohio governor Vivek Ramaswamy) stirring up controversy. None of that is about Husted or Brown, but it’s amped up the energy in the state.” \[[*Potshots, Shock and Slick AI vs. Slop: An Election Advertising Year Like No Other*](https://today.umd.edu/potshots-shock-and-slick-ai-vs-slop-an-election-advertising-year-like-no-other)\] ## HOUSE **New York’s 17th District: Incumbent Mike Lawler (R) vs. Cait Conley (D)** “This seat just north of New York City in the Hudson Valley is the classic flip-flop district, where Kamala Harris won by less than a point. It's part of a handful of swingy suburban districts in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and Michigan where voters sometimes split their ticket. “Lawler was elected in 2022, so he’s too new to be tied to all the baggage of Washington. He proposes addressing rising energy costs by reopening a local nuclear power plant, which Conley is attacking him on. “Conley, a military veteran who worked in the Biden administration, is part of a trend of moderate Democrats with national security backgrounds who won’t always vote for Democratic proposals. Recently elected Govs. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia show it’s a successful model, especially for women. But Conley also worked in tech, which is an area of contention as voters think about AI and data centers.” **Texas’ 15th District: Incumbent Monica De La Cruz (R) vs. Bobby Pulido (D)** “The Republican Party traditionally hasn’t been successful with Latino voters but in 2024 made extraordinary gains, setting forth a blueprint for how to grow the party. Latinos make up 65% of likely voters in this district, which Trump carried by 18 percentage points in 2024. Democrats were despondent, but maybe they won’t be this year. “Pulido, who’s new to politics and became famous as a Tejano music star, is up by 6 percentage points, an unexpectedly fast turnaround since Trump’s win. He’s conservative on social issues but focused on helping working families in a district where affordability is a huge issue. “De La Cruz is a strong supporter of Trump and his mass deportation programs, which isn’t an obvious position for her community. Voters here liked the idea of immigration reform when Trump introduced it in 2024, but now a majority disapprove of his handling of it. Texas Latino voters don’t have the same entrenched partisan loyalty as many other Texans, so it’s possible they’ll swing away from a partisan like De La Cruz. **Topics:** [Research](https://today.umd.edu/tags/research) **Tags:** [2026 Elections](https://today.umd.edu/topic/2026-elections), [Government and Politics](https://today.umd.edu/topic/government-and-politics), [Research](https://today.umd.edu/topic/research) **Units:** [College of Behavioral and Social Sciences](https://today.umd.edu/topic/college-behavioral-and-social-sciences)